According to the latest analysis report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Kazakhstans barley production in the 2023/24 sales year will increase significantly, reaching an estimated 3.25 million tons. This growth not only reflects the improvement in Kazakhstans agricultural production but also indicates its enhanced competitiveness in the international barley market.

Barley Cultivation and Yield Forecast

The report indicates that Kazakhstans barley planting area in the 2023/24 year is expected to remain largely unchanged compared to the previous year. However, due to improved yield forecasts, producers are optimistic about barley production in the 2024/25 year. The yield forecast has increased from the previous 13 centners per hectare (ц/га) to 17 centners per hectare, significantly boosting overall production expectations.

Kazakhstan farmers barley planting plans are primarily driven by strong demand from the domestic feed industry. Although insufficient market supply of barley seeds may affect some farmers planting plans, overall production expectations remain high. According to producers estimates, barley production in the 2024/25 year will reach 3.25 million tons, with exports expected to be 1.5 million tons. This forecast is based on Kazakhstans competitive export prices and strong demand expectations from the Chinese market.

Increase in Export Volume

The increase in production has directly led to a rise in Kazakhstans barley exports. Data shows that from July 2023 to February 2024, Kazakhstans barley exports reached 939,000 tons, a nearly 30% increase compared to the same period last year. Among these, demand from the Chinese market has grown most significantly. Since the start of this sales year, China has become the largest importer of Kazakhstans barley. Compared to the same period last year, Chinas imports increased nearly fourfold, reaching 723,000 tons. This growth is mainly attributed to the high demand for animal feed in China and the price advantage of Kazakhstans barley over other suppliers.

Driving Forces Behind China-Kazakhstan Barley Trade

Multiple factors have contributed to China becoming the largest importer of Kazakhstans barley. First, Chinas demand for animal feed continues to grow. With the development of Chinas livestock industry, the demand for high-quality feed has increased, leading to a rise in demand for barley as an important feed ingredient.

Second, the price competitiveness of Kazakhstans barley is also a key factor attracting Chinese buyers. Compared to other barley suppliers, Kazakhstans barley has a clear price advantage, making Chinese buyers more inclined to choose Kazakhstan as their primary supplier.

Import Situation in Other Countries

In addition to China, Uzbekistan is also an important importer of Kazakhstans barley, with imports reaching 123,000 tons. In contrast, Irans barley imports dropped significantly to 41,000 tons, a decrease of 87%. Traders noted that Iranian buyers are increasingly purchasing Russian barley, leading to a sharp decline in Kazakhstans exports to Iran.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, Kazakhstans position in the global barley market is expected to further improve. With continuous increases in production and exports, Kazakhstan will continue to meet the international demand for barley, including from China. The report predicts that Kazakhstans barley exports in the 2024/25 sales year will reach 1.5 million tons, based on its competitive export prices and strong demand expectations from the Chinese market.

Furthermore, Kazakhstans advancements in barley cultivation technology and agricultural management will provide a foundation for further increases in barley production. Despite challenges such as insufficient barley seed supply, by optimizing cultivation techniques and improving yields, Kazakhstan is expected to maintain growth in barley production in the future.

As an important barley producer and exporter, Kazakhstans position in the global market continues to rise. The fact that China has become its largest importer further highlights the close cooperation between China and Kazakhstan in agricultural trade. With continuous growth in Kazakhstans barley production and exports, as well as strong demand for high-quality feed in China, the prospects for cooperation in barley trade between the two countries will be even broader. By continuously optimizing agricultural production technologies and strengthening international trade cooperation, Kazakhstan is expected to occupy a more important position in the global barley market and make greater contributions to global food supply security.