Inside the warehouses of the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), millions of small - value parcels from China are piled up like mountains, a scene that vividly depicts the sharp turn of the Trump administrations tariff policy. From signing an executive order on February 1 to cancel the tariff exemption for cross - border parcels worth less than $800, to urgently suspending the new regulation on February 7, the policy reversal within just seven days not only led to logistics paralysis but also exposed the deep - seated contradictions in the US trade regulatory system. According to CBP internal documents, as of February 6, the total number of backlogged parcels at major US ports exceeded 1.5 million. The X - ray inspection equipment at the Los Angeles Customs malfunctioned due to over - operation, forcing the activation of manual sorting channels.

The core of this storm points directly to the de minimis tariff exemption system—a decades-old policy that allows small-value goods to bypass formal customs declarations, supporting platforms like Temu, Shein, and AliExpress.Cross-border E-commerceThe inadequacy of regulatory capabilities was fully exposed in this crisis. A CBP official anonymously revealed that the existing system can only handle the declaration needs of 3 million parcels per day, while the daily declaration volume suddenly increased to 5 million after the implementation of the new regulation. Whats more difficult is that about 35% of cross - border parcels lack compliant electronic data and require manual data entry, which is a disaster for the customs team that is already 15% understaffed due to heavy border control tasks. James Huang, legal counsel of the International Freight Association, warned: This is not a simple policy adjustment but an extreme stress test of the entire trade infrastructure.,Air TransportationThe response strategies of Chinese sellers have quickly diverged. Some merchants have started to shift to the overseas warehouse model, stockpiling goods in advance in warehouses within the United States to avoid customs clearance risks. A senior executive of a cross - border e - commerce platform revealed that the rental consultation volume of its Los Angeles overseas warehouse skyrocketed by 300% during the policy fluctuations. Although the warehousing cost increased by 20%, it is still a better choice compared to the tariff uncertainty. This shift coincides exactly with the latest policy of the General Administration of Customs of China - the new cross - border e - commerce regulation announced on February 6 clearly states that goods in overseas warehouses can apply for tax rebates upon departure, injecting a shot in the arm for the model transformation. A leading overseas warehouse service enterprise estimates that if fully converted to the pre - placed warehouse model, the average logistics time of Chinese sellers may be shortened by 3 - 5 days.

The limitations of regulatory capacity have been fully exposed in this crisis. CBP officials anonymously revealed that the current system can only handle 3 million parcel declarations per day, while the new regulations have caused daily declarations to surge to 5 million. More棘手的是，約35%的跨境包裹缺乏符合要求的電子數(shù)據(jù)，需要人工補(bǔ)錄信息，這對(duì)本就因邊境管控任務(wù)繁重而缺員15%的海關(guān)隊(duì)伍堪稱災(zāi)難。國(guó)際貨運(yùn)協(xié)會(huì)法律顧問詹姆斯·黃警告：This is not a simple policy adjustment but a極限壓力測(cè)試 for the entire trade infrastructure.,

Chinese sellers應(yīng)對(duì)策略迅速分化。部分商戶開始轉(zhuǎn)向海外倉(cāng)模式，將貨物提前囤積至美國(guó)境內(nèi)倉(cāng)庫(kù)以規(guī)避清關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。某跨境電商平臺(tái)高管透露，其洛杉磯海外倉(cāng)的租賃咨詢量在政策波動(dòng)期間暴漲300%，雖然倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)成本增加20%，但相比關(guān)稅不確定性仍是更優(yōu)選擇。這種轉(zhuǎn)變恰好契合中國(guó)海關(guān)總署的最新政策——February 6公布的跨境電商Export DrawbackThe new regulations clearly state that goods in overseas warehouses can apply for tax rebates upon leaving the country, injecting a shot in the arm for the model transformation. A leading overseas warehouse service enterprise estimated that if fully converted to the forward - warehouse model, the average logistics timeliness of Chinese sellers could be shortened by 3 - 5 days.

The Trump administrations policy搖擺引發(fā)多方博弈。暫?；砻獗唤庾x為給CBP爭(zhēng)取系統(tǒng)升級(jí)時(shí)間的權(quán)宜之計(jì)，但其同步宣布的對(duì)華10%全面關(guān)稅仍如達(dá)摩克利斯之劍高懸。摩根大通供應(yīng)鏈金融團(tuán)隊(duì)分析，若豁免政策最終取消，單個(gè)小額包裹的清關(guān)成本將增加5-8美元，迫使客單價(jià)低于15美元的商品退出美國(guó)市場(chǎng)。這種沖擊已反映在資本市場(chǎng)，拼多多美股股價(jià)在政策波動(dòng)期間振幅達(dá)12%，Shein估值模型中被加入15%的監(jiān)管風(fēng)險(xiǎn)折價(jià)。

Global logistics giants are redrawing their route maps. FedEx has quietly added cross-border land routes between China and Mexico,試圖利用美墨加協(xié)定中的關(guān)稅優(yōu)惠條款迂回入美；馬士基則加速布局越南-美國(guó)東海岸直航航線，以承接可能轉(zhuǎn)移的產(chǎn)能。這種去中心化策略雖能分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，卻推高了整體物流成本。波羅的?？者\(yùn)指數(shù)顯示，中美航線運(yùn)費(fèi)在政策波動(dòng)期內(nèi)上漲18%，創(chuàng)下去年黑五季以來最大漲幅。